Joey's NFL Hot Takes: NFC South Edition

The NFL is back, and so are my hot takes! The past three weeks have been telling for many teams’ futures, especially in the NFC South. The New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, and Carolina Panthers are in vastly different stages of championship contendership, and there’s much to say for each team. Let’s get into it.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints are actually making the right decisions. For once, the Saints aren’t promising aging players insane contracts or putting all their capital into a select few players, like the Michael Thomas contract, for example. Financially, they aren’t too terrible. The Saints have the second-most dead money this season and will likely have the most dead money next season, meaning money from traded, released, or traded players that still counts against the team’s salary cap. By 2028, however, New Orleans will have the second-highest salary cap space. Most players’ contracts, especially the ones with the highest average salaries, expire in  2027. With such financial flexibility, the Saints can choose their path forward. New Orleans seemed to have learned from the Panthers’ mistake of drafting up for talent when the team’s foundational base was still shaky. As long as they don’t give Alvin Kamara a ridiculous extension or overpay for some free agent, the Saints are finally making the best moves for the organization post-Drew Brees.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield is an MVP candidate. It’s only been three weeks, but Mayfield has shown he can make a case for MVP this year. Only three quarterbacks have thrown at least five touchdowns and no interceptions — Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Baker Mayfield. Tampa’s 30-year-old quarterback is seventh in passer rating and fifth in quarterback rating (QBR), among quarterbacks who’ve played three games. In these major statistical categories, Mayfield only ranks below past MVP winners, current MVP contenders, and the now likely Comeback Player of the Year, Daniel Jones. Mayfield has led the Buccaneers to a 3-0 start and, given the poor competition in the NFC South, should amass many more wins throughout the season. Mayfield has the impressive individual stats to back the Buccaneers’ potentially high winning record, which is a recipe for a successful MVP-caliber season.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons should be great, but aren’t. I firmly believe that Atlanta should’ve been a lock as a playoff team this year, yet they are already 1-2 with a loss to the Panthers of all teams. The Falcons’  strength of schedule was ranked fourth-easiest by Sharp Football Analysis, which may even be too low for them, considering the NFC South is by far the easiest NFC division. Beyond their failure to have a winning record thus far, they are wasting away the Pro Bowl talents of running back Bijan Robinson, safety Jessie Bates III, guard Chris Lindstrom, not to mention first-round pick players like wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts. The team has plenty of unrealized potential; whether it comes from poor management, poor coaching, or players not stepping up to the challenge, I’m not sure. Regardless, it’s clear that the Falcons, who haven’t had a winning season since 2017, can’t get their act together in one of the weakest NFL divisions and will likely miss the playoffs once again.

Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young is worse than you think. While many young players get overly criticized by media and fans early on in their careers when they underperform, Bryce Young deserves far more criticism. Young has only had one game surpassing an 84.1 QBR. Anthony Richardson has had two games surpassing an 84.1 QBR, the quarterback taken three places lower than Young, and lost his starting role to Daniel Jones. Four of Young’s seven career wins have come against the dysfunctional Falcons and Saints. He has the ninth-worst QBR and the seventh-worst passer rating this season. Young has the fourth-most passing attempts, yet the 18th-most passing yards. In Young’s career, he has 30 passing touchdowns and 22 interceptions. It’s clear that, while Young has been somewhat improving each year in turnovers, he’s still not the generational talent Carolina thought he would be. Unless the Panthers quickly stumble upon a true generational talent to carry the workload, the team will eventually have to axe Young to build a real future.