2025 NBA Forecasting: Playoff Picks, Trades, and Teams to Watch

The NBA season is rapidly approaching, and after an offseason that saw shakeups across the league, it’s time to evaluate where teams and players are before opening night next Tuesday. Seasoned analysts love to analyze previous win-loss records, assign preseason awards, and sometimes even ridicule players’ physiques, but the real fun comes in the what-ifs. What if the Kevin Durant trade bombs and the Rockets look stupid, however unlikely it may seem? What if a surprise new contender emerges from the East now that Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton are both out indefinitely? What if the Nets make the playoffs, likely requiring a literal act of God? I’m far more interested in these questions than poring through stat sheets. So, as a self-declared basketball superfan, here are my NBA preseason hot takes before the first jump ball officially drops.

The Oklahoma City Thunder go back-to-back in the Finals

Okay, maybe this one is a lukewarm take at best. The Thunder’s 68-win, record-breaking 2024-2025 regular season and dominance in the playoffs, coupled with the fact that they retained every key player on their roster, make them the heavy favorites for this year’s title. It’s no secret that other teams in the West bolstered their rosters in the offseason, but the Thunder are still better. The Rockets are just entering the Kevin Durant experiment, which could alter team chemistry for better or worse. The Warriors’ roster boasts a number of All-Stars, but also possibly the oldest starting lineup in NBA history, which raises questions about potential injury and the need for player rest. The Timberwolves lost Nickeil Alexander-Walker and have faltered in the playoffs despite reaching the Western Conference Finals the past two seasons. The Lakers, per usual, are really just a big question mark — Deandre Ayton’s ability to perform as a real NBA-level starting center, Luka Doncic’s injury history, and LeBron’s likely time off throughout the season aren’t exactly the most assuring combination. The Thunder’s most significant competition should come from the Denver Nuggets, who, between their offseason acquisitions and perennial MVP contender Nikola Jokic, look primed for success. I, however, just don’t think they beat the Thunder in a seven-game series. The chemistry of the Oklahoma City roster and the continued, year-after-year development of key players like Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren push them over the edge, not to mention that we haven’t even seen 2024 lottery pick Nikola Topic play yet. With the injuries to top Eastern Conference players, the Thunder also should not expect any serious challenges on the opposite side of the bracket, except for maybe one team, which brings me to my next take …

The New York Knicks make the Finals

Jalen Brunson and co. are undoubtedly a talented team on their own merits, but should also have a much easier path through the playoffs than last season, during which they made the Eastern Conference Finals, mind you. While many sports bettors have the Cleveland Cavaliers as the favorites out East, I feel that the Knicks’ hiring of two-time Coach of the Year Mike Brown has been seriously overlooked as an indicator of success. Brown’s commitment to player accountability and communication, and pace-focused coaching style, should set a positive tone right away. The signings of Jordan Clarkson, Malcolm Brogdon, and Guerschon Yabusele provide much-needed bench depth for a team that predominantly ran with seven- and eight-man rotations under former coach Tom Thibodeau during the 2024-2025 season. In all, it’s the Knicks’ time to shine, and they seem destined to go far in the playoffs this year.

The Portland Trail Blazers make the playoffs

This take might seem like a big jump from last season when the Blazers finished just shy of the play-in, but I believe it’s one backed by significant evidence. To start, the progression of 2024-2025 Most-Improved Player candidate Deni Avdija following the All-Star Break cannot be overstated. If he keeps it up this season, we’re looking at fringe All-Star potential even in a loaded Western Conference. Improvements by young players like Toumani Camara and Shaedon Sharpe give the team a boost of young energy that some of the other top teams in the West can’t claim, and 2024 seventh-overall pick Donovan Clingan shone in an increased role once DeAndre Ayton went down last season with injuries. On top of an already solid roster, the Blazers made a big splash in the draft this summer when they took Chinese star Yang Hansen at pick 16. The so-called “Chinese Jokic” has already made headlines as a standout in both Summer League and the preseason, with established players and coaches around the league taking note. But the biggest headline yet is the homecoming of Damian Lillard, a kind of superhero in Portland and someone who will give this young team a necessary veteran presence in the locker room. Between Lillard, the re-signed Jrue Holiday, and Naismith Hall of Fame-inducted coach Chauncey Billups, the Trail Blazers should have enough firepower to reach the postseason.

Jonathan Kuminga gets traded

Despite some flashy highlights in the preseason, the Kuminga drama from this summer is just too much to overlook. A near-100-day holdout between him and the Warriors’ front office ultimately ended in Kuminga signing a two-year, $46.8 million contract with a team option for the 2026-2027 season. A deal like this might appear like a renewed commitment, but it really sets up a perfect scenario for Kuminga to chase greener pastures elsewhere as early as a few months into this season. I don’t care how many interviews he appears in to dispel any hard feelings towards the team; the fact of the matter is that no deal as lucrative as the one he signed should have taken so long if Kuminga was truly satisfied. And Kuminga has a valid case. At just 23 years old, the 2021 seventh-overall pick has not received anywhere near the level of opportunity that others in his draft class have. Big contract or not, Kuminga likely still won’t have the basketball as much as he wants this season. The collection of Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, and Buddy Hield doesn’t leave a ton of room for Kuminga to develop the kind of stardom he’s looking for. As for the Warriors, they’ve already had their fair share of extended drama since the punch heard ’round the world that some in the NBA world are somehow still hung up on years later. As Curry and Green inch closer to retirement with every game they play, I wouldn’t blame the Warriors management for moving Kuminga as soon as possible. I give it until January at the latest.

The Paul George era in Philly ends

Really, it was over even before it started. A drop-off of 6.4 points per game since joining the 76ers, coupled with a total of just 41 games played, was not the kind of comeback George was hoping for when he signed with Philadelphia in 2024. Rather than a return to peak form, George is now better known for his podcast than his on-court prowess. “Podcast P” has become somewhat of a laughing stock of the league, and while he has addressed critics, claiming that the hobby is “therapeutic,” it might simply be too late. Philly’s struggles date back much further than the George acquisition, but for a move that was supposed to push the needle in the playoffs, it’s been pretty much nothing other than a bust. Some might look at this season as a do-over for Paul George and the 76ers, but I see it as a means to an end.

LeBron James does NOT retire at the end of the season

The age-old “will he, won’t he” came to a crux with LeBron’s recent “Second Decision,” which, of course, turned out to just be a Hennessy ad. Though this cruel joke of an ad campaign didn’t answer the question of whether or not James will actually retire at the end of this season, many fans were so certain of such a move that ticket prices for Laker home games jumped by as much as five or six times their previous value. Father Time is always looming, and it appears that many don’t think LeBron can answer the call for much longer. I think that’s just plain dumb. Sure, he has been publicly adamant about his timeline in the league, stating on the record that he won’t delay possible retirement even if it would entail playing with his son Bryce James. But do we all really believe that after this year, he’s just going to call it quits? Aging or not, LeBron put up 24.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game in a season when he turned 40 years old. You don’t just go from that to leaving the league, especially when you’re on a Los Angeles Lakers roster looking to compete for a championship that could further cement your status as the undisputed Greatest of All Time. So, Father Time, we’ll check in again next year, but for now I’m going to keep watching LeBron do what LeBron does best: Play basketball.